From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Government decides 2027–2031 ETS settings — new two-tier CCR, $75 auction floor in 2027
Ministry for the Environment · decisions announced 5 August 2026 · summary of submissions 20 August 2026
The headline numbers: auction price floor rises from the current ~$68 to $75 in 2027, $78 in 2028, $84 in 2029, $89 in 2030, $93 in 2031 (indexed to Treasury Budget 2026 inflation). A new two-tier Cost Containment Reserve replaces the single-tier structure, with Tier 1 triggering at $213 (2027) rising to $266 (2031) and Tier 2 at $267 (2027) rising to $332 (2031). Base auction volumes held at the Commission's recommendation (4.3 / 3.3 / 2.4 / 1.7 million units for 2027–30, 1.1 million for 2031 — the 2031 number is a small technical adjustment for an ongoing surplus reduction). Total CCR volumes decline from 5.9 million units in 2027 to 3.5 million in 2031.
What this means in plain English: the Government has formalised the Climate Change Commission's "hold the line" advice from April, and added the two-tier CCR mechanism the Commission had floated as a shortfall hedge. The $213 Tier 1 trigger is well above current spot (~$50) and current ARP (~$68), so it acts as a soft ceiling if prices run hard, not an immediate constraint. The 2026 consultation closed 12 July 2026; the decision followed on 5 August 2026. New settings take effect 1 January 2027.
MfE decisions page · Summary of submissions on unit settings · Summary of submissions on regulations.
ETSPolicyAuctionCarbon marketNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Voluntary carbon markets guidance published
Ministry for the Environment · Beehive
Government has published long-awaited guidance for voluntary climate-change mitigation and backed growth in trusted voluntary nature and carbon markets. Relevant to anyone considering nature-credit stacking on top of NZU income. MfE publication · Beehive release.
PolicyCarbon marketNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Forestry sector backs independent facilitator for Tairāwhiti
NZ Forest Owners Association
NZFOA has formally backed appointing an independent facilitator to broker between forestry, iwi, local government and community on the Tairāwhiti slash-and-land-use file. A material political move — the industry's public position has been defensive since Cyclone Gabrielle; endorsing an independent facilitator is a different posture. NZFOA note.
Land useIwi & MāoriPolicyTairāwhiti
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
RNZ: Natural hazards don't obey electoral cycles
RNZ · 19 October 2026
Analysis piece arguing whichever government forms after the November 2026 election inherits structural choices on natural-hazard funding, managed retreat, and infrastructure resilience. Relevant backdrop for what forestry policy — slash rules, cost recovery, the CCRA amendment bill — gets prioritised next term. RNZ.
PolicyClimate adaptationElectionNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Election backdrop
With the general election on 29 November, forestry-adjacent policy is in a quiet pre-election phase. The Natural Environment Bill select committee report-back has been pushed to December (RMLA note), and no new ETS or forestry-cost-recovery decisions are expected before polling day. The RNZ natural-hazards analysis in Section 5 is the best primer on which structural choices land on the next government's desk regardless of who wins.
ElectionPolicyNational