Government decides 2027–2031 ETS settings — new two-tier CCR, $75 auction floor in 2027
The headline numbers: auction price floor rises from the current ~$68 to $75 in 2027, $78 in 2028, $84 in 2029, $89 in 2030, $93 in 2031 (indexed to Treasury Budget 2026 inflation). A new two-tier Cost Containment Reserve replaces the single-tier structure, with Tier 1 triggering at $213 (2027) rising to $266 (2031) and Tier 2 at $267 (2027) rising to $332 (2031). Base auction volumes held at the Commission's recommendation (4.3 / 3.3 / 2.4 / 1.7 million units for 2027–30, 1.1 million for 2031 — the 2031 number is a small technical adjustment for an ongoing surplus reduction). Total CCR volumes decline from 5.9 million units in 2027 to 3.5 million in 2031.
What this means in plain English: the Government has formalised the Climate Change Commission's "hold the line" advice from April, and added the two-tier CCR mechanism the Commission had floated as a shortfall hedge. The $213 Tier 1 trigger is well above current spot (~$50) and current ARP (~$68), so it acts as a soft ceiling if prices run hard, not an immediate constraint. The 2026 consultation closed 12 July 2026; the decision followed on 5 August 2026. New settings take effect 1 January 2027.
MfE decisions page · Summary of submissions on unit settings · Summary of submissions on regulations.