From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Government decides 2027–2031 ETS settings — new two-tier CCR, $75 auction floor in 2027
Ministry for the Environment · decisions announced 5 August 2026 · summary of submissions 20 August 2026
The headline numbers: auction price floor rises from the current ~$68 to $75 in 2027, $78 in 2028, $84 in 2029, $89 in 2030, $93 in 2031 (indexed to Treasury Budget 2026 inflation). A new two-tier Cost Containment Reserve replaces the single-tier structure, with Tier 1 triggering at $213 (2027) rising to $266 (2031) and Tier 2 at $267 (2027) rising to $332 (2031). Base auction volumes held at the Commission's recommendation (4.3 / 3.3 / 2.4 / 1.7 million units for 2027–30, 1.1 million for 2031 — the 2031 number is a small technical adjustment for an ongoing surplus reduction). Total CCR volumes decline from 5.9 million units in 2027 to 3.5 million in 2031.
What this means in plain English: the Government has formalised the Climate Change Commission's "hold the line" advice from April, and added the two-tier CCR mechanism the Commission had floated as a shortfall hedge. The $213 Tier 1 trigger is well above current spot (~$50) and current ARP (~$68), so it acts as a soft ceiling if prices run hard, not an immediate constraint. The 2026 consultation closed 12 July 2026; the decision followed on 5 August 2026. New settings take effect 1 January 2027.
MfE decisions page · Summary of submissions on unit settings · Summary of submissions on regulations.
ETSPolicyAuctionCarbon marketNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
MPI LUC class 6 land permits ballot
MPI / Te Uru Rākau
The Canopy page explaining the Land Use Capability class 6 ballot — the mechanism for landowners seeking ETS registration on class 6 land under the September 2025 restrictions — remains the live reference for how the restriction is being administered. Ballot page.
ETSLand useNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Voluntary carbon markets guidance published
Ministry for the Environment · Beehive
Government has published long-awaited guidance for voluntary climate-change mitigation and backed growth in trusted voluntary nature and carbon markets. Relevant to anyone considering nature-credit stacking on top of NZU income. MfE publication · Beehive release.
PolicyCarbon marketNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
NZFOA: India trade deal offers significant market opportunities for New Zealand forest
NZ Forest Owners Association · 20 October 2026
With the India–NZ free trade agreement signed and in force, NZFOA has published its first substantive read on market opportunities for softwood lumber and panel products. India is the counter-current to softening China log demand; shifting even a small volume share reduces exposure to Chinese property-sector weakness. NZFOA homepage with release.
TradeLog marketNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Forestry rates blowout after council modelling error
NZ Forest Owners Association
NZFOA reports a council rating error has caused forestry rate assessments to spike for some owners. The release is thin on which council. Worth tracking if your rating changes landed this quarter. Release.
RatesRegulationNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Forest owners record major pest control contribution
NZ Forest Owners Association
NZFOA quantifies industry pest-control spend across member estates — a defensive communications piece against the "plant-and-abandon carbon farming" framing. Useful numbers for building a social-licence case for commercial forestry alongside native-transition work. Release.
Pest controlOperationsNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Forest owners invest $8.1 million annually in wildfire protection
NZ Forest Owners Association
NZFOA numbers release framing industry-funded wildfire investment ahead of the fire season. The $8.1 million figure sits in context with Commission warnings on climate-adaptation funding being under-provisioned. Release.
WildfireSafetyClimate adaptationNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Tāne's Tree Trust: new guidelines for transitioning from exotic to native forest
The Trust's updated transition guidelines — the practical companion to the conference themes above. Required reading for anyone running conversions. Guidelines.
Native transitionOperationsNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Carbon market editorial — spot firms, forward curve now anchored
Carbon Price firmed +2.17% on the week on thin volume (1,765 units across four trades). The failed-auctions story — most recently covered in Carbon News — remains the near-term frame, but the longer-term signal has now firmed: the Government's 5 August decision (Section 1) locks in a $75 auction floor from 2027 and a two-tier CCR with the first trigger at $213. For modellers, that effectively defines the forward price corridor until the next CCRA amendment moves things. The practical read: if you were discounting for policy uncertainty on 2027–31 settings, you can stop.
Carbon marketETSAuctionNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Log market editorial — Dec-25 quarterly shows broad recovery
MPI's Dec-25 quarterly log-price survey shows a strong export-grade recovery versus the previous quarter, with Pruned up 17.5% to a $201 weighted average and Unpruned A up 16.9%. Domestic P2 up 7.1%, Pulp up 22.6%. The India FTA (Section 2) is the single most consequential structural change for forward margins. Argus's earlier analysis that NZ could raise ETS auction volumes 2028–30 still sets market framing: Argus.
Log marketTradeNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
RNZ: NZ's climate in 'uncharted territory' with more extreme weather ahead
RNZ · 19 October 2026
Framing piece on a record-strength El Niño incoming against an already-warmed baseline. Significant for forestry's wildfire and windthrow risk profiles over the 2026/27 summer. Pairs usefully with NZFOA's $8.1 million wildfire-investment release (Section 2). RNZ.
Climate adaptationEl NiñoNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
RNZ: Natural hazards don't obey electoral cycles
RNZ · 19 October 2026
Analysis piece arguing whichever government forms after the November 2026 election inherits structural choices on natural-hazard funding, managed retreat, and infrastructure resilience. Relevant backdrop for what forestry policy — slash rules, cost recovery, the CCRA amendment bill — gets prioritised next term. RNZ.
PolicyClimate adaptationElectionNational
From Fresh Cuts — 23 October 2026 · view full issue →
Election backdrop
With the general election on 29 November, forestry-adjacent policy is in a quiet pre-election phase. The Natural Environment Bill select committee report-back has been pushed to December (RMLA note), and no new ETS or forestry-cost-recovery decisions are expected before polling day. The RNZ natural-hazards analysis in Section 5 is the best primer on which structural choices land on the next government's desk regardless of who wins.
ElectionPolicyNational